Can commodity prices influence elections?

India is in the mood of parliamentary elections, and in less than 90 days, a new government will be in place in New Delhi. The Indian industry hopes that a new, stable government could perhaps help the country emerge from the current economic recession. People, as usual, are confused by electoral surveys and political predictions. But everyone agrees in unison that the new government needs to propel the country to a phase of economic resurgence.

One interesting national survey went largely unnoticed recently. The study conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) on behalf of Bharat Krishak Samaj says that farmers and rural Indians—the bulk of India’s vote bank—are really upset over the rising prices of essential commodities they consume and the low prices of the agricultural commodities they produce.

So, the moot question is, can commodity prices influence general elections in India? It looks that even though politics in India is divided over caste, creed, religion and communal passions and social divisions, a large number of voters will cast their vote on the impact the commodity prices had on their lives in the last five years.

The study--Report on the State of Indian Farmer--interviewed about 11,000 farmers in 274 villages of 137 districts across 18 states.

Here are some salient points from the survey:

**A significant number of farmers in India are ready to quit farming thanks to low returns from their produce. Given a chance, many of them are willing to migrate to urban areas for better living conditions. 47 per cent of those surveyed farmers said their condition is so bad that they prefer some work other than farming.

**About 70 per cent of the farmers surveyed said their crops got destroyed at least once in the past three years. About 58 per cent of them blamed both governments at the Centre and State for their problems.

** The survey, which also interviewed 4,298 women, found that 67 per cent of them felt that income from agriculture was not sufficient to fulfill the livelihood needs of their families. Of the 2,116 youth interviewed, only 20 per cent said they would continue farming.

**A large section of farmers – about 62 per cent – were not aware of the concept of minimum support price (MSP) for various crops that the governments keep declaring. This means the farmers are not really benefitting from government financial schemes to protect their agricultural produce from low prices.

**Most farmers said only rich farmers got the benefits of government schemes and policies, and only a tenth of poor and small farmers were found to have benefited from these schemes. Eighty-three per cent of the farmers had not heard about Foreign Direct Investment. Of them, 51 per cent said FDI should not be allowed since farmers may not be able to bargain.

**Most of those surveyed said price rise is going to be the most important poll issue in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. They also said that unemployment and issues related to irrigation would also dominate the elections.

**Over half of those surveyed – 57 per cent – felt that no political party cared about farmers’ interests. About 16 per cent felt that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) cared about farmers’ interest, while 13 per cent opted for Congress.

The survey on the eve of the parliamentary elections bares some truths. Majority of farmers have talked truth, because in the last few years farming has been an uneconomical activity thanks to volatile commodity prices and rising cost of production.

Prices of essential commodities like rice, dal, onion and vegetables have increased. But prices of several commodities that farmers produce have been caught in the vortex of volatility, low returns, bad weather and extreme environmental conditions.

70 per cent of Indians live in rural areas, but has any government at the State or the Centre cared to provide enough opportunities of financial inclusion, investment, technological know-how and irrigation facilities to the farming community in India?

If not, the state of commodity prices that has been affecting farmers and common man hard will considerably influence the electoral fortunes of several politicians and electoral candidates in the coming polls.