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Monday 27 January 2014

India Gold futures eyeing 30,000 levels, US futures $1300

The trend in gold futures for February delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) looks sideways to bullish for the day. Intra-day traders are advised to use buy on dip strategy for the day.

Gold futures at India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) is eyeing Rs 30,000 per 10 grams while US Gold futures is targetting $1300 per ounce levels as a series of macro-indicators and a weak rupee are having an impact on the yellow metal.
US Futures for February delivery rose to a high of $1279.8 before falling back to $1266.2 an ounce while Gold futures for February delivery at India's MCX is up 0.48% to Rs 29660 per 10 gm.
The trend in gold futures for February delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) looks sideways to bullish for the day. Intra-day traders are advised to use buy on dip strategy for the day.
“For intra-day, support for the commodity is seen at 29400 and below that it may test level of 29250 while resistance is seen at 29800 and above that it may test level of 30000” said Amrita Mashar, Research Analyst at Commodity Online.
“One can enter into buying side near 29550 with stop loss of 29400 for target near 29750 and 29850,” she added.
INR depreciation against USD by 0.23% which provided support to Gold prices in opening hour. Meanwhile, COMEX Gold also gained near to $ 1275 an ounce on continuous buying sentiment and boosted the safe haven appeal among the investors.
Key highlights from Barclays weekly report on gold:
-Net fund length in Comex gold rose for the fifth straight week ended 21 January, a trend not seen since October 2012. Speculative positioning has slowly edged higher and is now at its highest since mid November. Although net non commercial positions are relatively positive, gross longs and shorts are not aggressively elevated in either direction, suggesting scope for significant moves following the FOMC meeting this week.
- The latest data from the US Mint showed that gold coin sales stand at 129koz so far in January, most of that achieved during the first half of the month, indicating a slowdown last week. This still leaves January as the highest month since the blockbuster sales in April (246.5koz), but it is not unusual to see high gold coin sales in January as collectors buy new issues. January sales have already reached 12% of full year 2013 sales (1.095Moz
News that can drive gold:
-India's Finance Minsister has indicated that the government may review the import restrictions on gold by March end when the present financial year 2012-14 comes to an end. He said that considerable progress has been achieved in bringing down the current account deficit to below $50 bn as against $88 bn last year. Hoewever, gold smuggling has increased. Barclays Research in a weekly note pointed out that in the event of relaxing of import restrictions, India gold demand is set to recover. in seasonally strong periods last year, gold demand remained weak on import curbs, it said.
-Pakistan has issued a 30-day ban on imports as it is being used to smuggle gold into India, news reports said.
-Weak Rupee is expected to provide strong support for gold prices in India.
-- US Federal Reserve based on the assessemnt at the upcoming FOMC meeting may go for additonal tapering of $10 bn per month which could be negative for gold 
On daily charts, COmex Gold for February delivery is quite bullish with an RsI Of 61.34 and MACD in positive territory. But the upward movements will face considerable resistance at 1290, 1300 levels," Sreekumar Raghavan, Chief Strategist at Commodity Online said.

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